Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cfa653fb00c0ee818e97da9b5440c6747134ec0b02bf9a59747239073f3741c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 8,753$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.53 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 12c | 782.03$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 54c | 410.4$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 45c | 400$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked No | 40c | 233.39$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…07cfbacked No | 14c | 130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 114.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 79c | 75.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…8723backed Yes | 44c | 75.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 45 | 86.7%39 W · 6 L | +16.1wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x2c32…7f32backed No | 47c | 74.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 24c | 54.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 21c | 52.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 63c | 48.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked Yes | 45c | 46.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 55c | 42.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 77c | 42.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 77c | 40.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 73c | 38.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 80c | 31.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed Yes | 50c | 29.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b36…c0e7backed Yes | 77c | 25.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 79c | 23.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 76c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 80c | 13.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 79c | 13.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.