Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d16e1e4e83f4d0c9b0fa47c2414a410fd491f9837d7c46adb581cc9582b0250
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 1c | 3,727$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Under | 59c | 1,661$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681 | 1,827 | 45.6%834 W · 993 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Over | 41c | 900$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 435 | 39.5%172 W · 263 L | -24.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87df…0317backed Over | 41c | 788.48$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Over | 44c | 656.03$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.02 | 857 | 46.3%397 W · 460 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x031b…babcbacked Under | 62c | 559.93$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.22 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Over | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 288 | 43.8%126 W · 162 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7927…34d2backed Under | 71c | 325.9$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.64 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 59cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 31c | 269.33$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.38 | 850 | 46%391 W · 459 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Under | 57c | 199.98$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 1,520 | 3.3%50 W · 1,470 L | -54.0wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Over | 38c | 185.18$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf600…5ca7backed Under | 60c | 148.43$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Over | 29c | 142.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 506 | 43.1%218 W · 288 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Under | 57c | 134.93$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 1,158 | 49.2%570 W · 588 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Under | 52c | 127.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 704 | 43.9%309 W · 395 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Over | 50c | 120.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 302 | 55.6%168 W · 134 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ef…2855backed Over | 48c | 64.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Under | 55c | 63.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 1,035 | 47.2%489 W · 546 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed Over | 45c | 63.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 549 | 44.4%244 W · 305 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…6631backed Over | 25c | 62.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -8.6wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe888…4154backed Under | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 599 | 52.8%316 W · 283 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…a9bcbacked Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -10.4wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd114…131bbacked Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77aa…5e60backed Over | 43c | 29.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…fab9backed Under | 62c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ed…c7d5backed Under | 70c | 27.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…9f2cbacked Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6219…4600backed Under | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9389…2e3abacked Under | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafa0…bfdabacked Under | 75c | 14.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Invictus Gaming (+1.5)Bilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3)Bilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.