Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d2444c5a802e73d5101572468f5436fa1764ca6a2273b957837ca15e6db26ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 233.47$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 74c | 211.91$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 206.47$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 139.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed No | 18c | 119.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 37c | 101.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.34 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 95.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 82.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 29c | 80.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdc…a29abacked No | 36c | 79.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…242ebacked Yes | 60c | 77.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 64c | 75.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc678…e738backed Yes | 66c | 73.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 31c | 71.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 70c | 69.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 47c | 60.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 58.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 74c | 49.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 47.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…e225backed Yes | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…705dbacked No | 32c | 42.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5abd…78fcbacked Yes | 58c | 41.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 38c | 40.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3200…6c7ebacked No | 51c | 37.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 78c | 35.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 35.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x352a…73b1backed No | 31c | 34.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…32b5backed Yes | 33c | 33.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 43c | 32.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5db1…c653backed Yes | 42c | 29.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 37c | 27.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…0133backed Yes | 75c | 26.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 64c | 25.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 24.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 66c | 23.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x641d…1557backed Yes | 68c | 21.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 59c | 21.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 19.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed Yes | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 71c | 19.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b47…2906backed No | 68c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 77cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x649e…fd6abacked Yes | 69c | 16.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 69c | 16.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed Yes | 75c | 15.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.