Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Paul (-2.5) vs Kwon (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d3b01d5be2730b9849cd044f01ab0679fc9828d91f78789e1ff7e6bd2b64471
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paulof Paul, Kwon
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x354b…4744backed Kwon | 53c | 567.55$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Paul | 50c | 493.16$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.07 | 625 | 45.4%284 W · 341 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Paul | 44c | 454.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.54 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Kwon | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Kwon | 54c | 308.62$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.62 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0475…ed7abacked Paul | 46c | 300$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Paul | 47c | 271.81$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.15 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6add…6992backed Kwon | 56c | 269.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kwon | 51c | 245.29$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.1 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Paul | 47c | 205.54$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.01 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Kwon | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Paul | 49c | 103.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47cd…5648backed Paul | 49c | 102$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Paul | 51c | 101.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Paul | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Kwon | 50c | 85.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Kwon | 52c | 79.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Paul | 48c | 69.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Kwon | 50c | 61.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341d…2995backed Paul | 48c | 51.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 311 | 61.1%190 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Kwon | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 129 | 45.7%59 W · 70 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Kwon | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Paul (-2.5) vs Kwon (+2.5)this page
- Set 1 Winner: Kwon vs PaulPaul won
- Set 2 Winner: Kwon vs PaulPaul won
- Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Kwon (+1.5)Paul won
- Soon-Woo Kwon vs. Tommy Paul: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Wimbledon ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Tommy PaulTommy Paul won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.