Tennis · resolved market
ITF M15 Xativa Men: Xavier Ferrer Mateo vs Mario Arce Fernandez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d3f0c3b6b61dc728cb6c0f6362b287659e6720a2a64245f0af7857c9118c19f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mario Arce Fernandezof Xavier Ferrer Mateo, Mario Arce Fernandez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Xavier Ferrer Mateo | 14c | 9,401$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,276.26 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ba…04e4backed Xavier Ferrer Mateo | 28c | 4,717$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340 | 717 | 29.8%214 W · 503 L | -39.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Xavier Ferrer Mateo | 15c | 803.79$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.82 | 705 | 37.6%265 W · 440 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b9…4467backed Xavier Ferrer Mateo | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 380 | 33.9%129 W · 251 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Xavier Ferrer Mateo | 19c | 586.9$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.23 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec39…64bbbacked Mario Arce Fernandez | 69c | 355.1$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.08 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60f8…809cbacked Xavier Ferrer Mateo | 25c | 310.35$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Xavier Ferrer Mateo | 17c | 309.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 235 | 30.2%71 W · 164 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x166f…632abacked Xavier Ferrer Mateo | 43c | 170.48$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 114 | 37.7%43 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Xavier Ferrer Mateo | 19c | 129$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe54…c928backed Xavier Ferrer Mateo | 15c | 96.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 91 | 36.3%33 W · 58 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Xavier Ferrer Mateo | 25c | 94.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 431 | 44.8%193 W · 238 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Xavier Ferrer Mateo | 16c | 91.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea6…9223backed Xavier Ferrer Mateo | 20c | 88.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f25…e9a5backed Xavier Ferrer Mateo | 17c | 88.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbeec…2f66backed Xavier Ferrer Mateo | 28c | 71.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 216 | 61.1%132 W · 84 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Xavier Ferrer Mateo | 28c | 71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mario Arce Fernandez | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…7bc2backed Xavier Ferrer Mateo | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 215 | 36.7%79 W · 136 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe77…8fe4backed Xavier Ferrer Mateo | 24c | 57.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 95 | 31.6%30 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Xavier Ferrer Mateo | 19c | 55.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae6a…de5ebacked Mario Arce Fernandez | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 244 | 59.4%145 W · 99 L | +21.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Mario Arce Fernandez | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Mario Arce Fernandez | 75c | 24.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…b22cbacked Mario Arce Fernandez | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.