CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Arcade Esports vs Abyssal - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d45d13f95e279b4b2b4131cba4e934fcb2cfdc8f39d73070630e7125558e6cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arcade Esportsof Arcade Esports, Abyssal
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Arcade Esports | 70c | 597.32$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.07 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51cf…45fbbacked Abyssal | 34c | 294$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401d…23c6backed Abyssal | 35c | 284.92$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Arcade Esports | 61c | 235.28$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.79 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Abyssal | 38c | 220.45$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 752 | 45.3%341 W · 411 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Arcade Esports | 56c | 217.02$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.84 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7498…8b4dbacked Abyssal | 57c | 176.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Abyssal | 30c | 172$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 345 | 42.3%146 W · 199 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Abyssal | 32c | 147.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 593 | 43.2%256 W · 337 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Arcade Esports | 51c | 136$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…bf81backed Arcade Esports | 57c | 135.95$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 351 | 48.1%169 W · 182 L | -13.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Abyssal | 19c | 126.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x46e4…c6dabacked Abyssal | 35c | 109.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a65…b42bbacked Abyssal | 28c | 106.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6875…7337backed Abyssal | 55c | 103$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked Arcade Esports | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Arcade Esports | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Arcade Esports | 61c | 67.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Arcade Esports | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 780 | 43.7%341 W · 439 L | -21.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Arcade Esports | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…472ebacked Abyssal | 30c | 59.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…a8d8backed Abyssal | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Abyssal | 41c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Abyssal | 40c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Abyssal | 39c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…dbe6backed Arcade Esports | 55c | 45.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 367 | 49.3%181 W · 186 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Abyssal | 46c | 37.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed Arcade Esports | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 242 | 60.3%146 W · 96 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d79…9e95backed Abyssal | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Arcade Esports | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Arcade Esports | 59c | 16.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 526 | 45.1%237 W · 289 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Arcade Esports vs Abyssal - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Arcade Esports vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #6 Group BAbyssal won
- Counter-Strike: Arcade Esports vs Abyssal - Map 1 WinnerAbyssal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.