TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Arcade Esports vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #6 Group B

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Abyssalof Arcade Esports, Abyssal
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,778
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,379

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,778 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Abyssal68c10,002$6,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,207.755,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Abyssal68c5,164$3,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,661.372,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed Arcade Esports32c3,124$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.8138739.5%153 W · 234 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Arcade Esports31c3,000$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.51,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Abyssal62c2,242$1,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.791,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Abyssal60c1,986$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.432,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Arcade Esports32c1,765$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.3449536.4%180 W · 315 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Arcade Esports39c1,744$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.443,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcd30…fc9bbacked Arcade Esports37c1,731$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.89443.6%41 W · 53 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Abyssal50c1,653$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.831,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Arcade Esports47c1,636$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.552,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Abyssal62c1,445$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.0666851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Arcade Esports34c1,358$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.248240%193 W · 289 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedcc…41a1backed Abyssal57c1,257$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.4921953.4%117 W · 102 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Abyssal66c1,154$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.2959755.4%331 W · 266 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0e3…c760backed Arcade Esports32c1,011$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.847935.4%28 W · 51 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb373…d97cbacked Arcade Esports40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.7258745.5%267 W · 320 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44ea…7668backed Abyssal71c960.93$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.133976.9%30 W · 9 L+7.8wins+0.20per pick57cpaid+36.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe12e…bb43backed Abyssal52c959.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.67425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14b0…a142backed Arcade Esports33c957.01$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.325244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Abyssal67c887.69$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.5346555.1%256 W · 209 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9d6…730abacked Arcade Esports31c832.25$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.099565.3%62 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Arcade Esports32c817.08$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.92,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8eb…0f59backed Abyssal54c717.59$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.1521845.9%100 W · 118 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed Arcade Esports33c680.57$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.9215349.7%76 W · 77 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc386…386fbacked Abyssal38c663.9$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.3225944.8%116 W · 143 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+30%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa5e…185ebacked Abyssal77c635.78$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.072100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7797…7ddcbacked Arcade Esports35c618$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.562070%14 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+32%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x51e8…ebb7backed Arcade Esports33c605.41$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.32133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Arcade Esports31c591.97$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.4233627.7%93 W · 243 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked Arcade Esports46c590.55$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.9575245.3%341 W · 411 L-1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe18d…9c5bbacked Arcade Esports32c551.94$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.6215951.6%82 W · 77 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed Arcade Esports31c550.32$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17023732.9%78 W · 159 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Arcade Esports36c533.02$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.0983543.6%364 W · 471 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bf1…3018backed Arcade Esports30c494.89$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.475540%22 W · 33 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde57…666fbacked Arcade Esports34c491.6$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.145133.3%17 W · 34 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7498…8b4dbacked Abyssal62c489.52$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.92055%11 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefa3…7585backed Abyssal62c434.4$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.5577351.2%396 W · 377 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Arcade Esports32c430.35$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.6337848.1%182 W · 196 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Arcade Esports57c422.89$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.397,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Abyssal65c418.73$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.5584958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Arcade Esports45c409.65$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.155,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34a8…8c5cbacked Arcade Esports38c400$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1523231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Abyssal67c375.44$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.042,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d1d…c307backed Arcade Esports34c373.51$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.037027.1%19 W · 51 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x253f…4253backed Arcade Esports41c367.98$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.77048.6%34 W · 36 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8776…f2efbacked Abyssal48c353.03$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.0314153.9%76 W · 65 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Arcade Esports43c348.84$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcecf…e84fbacked Arcade Esports32c337.5$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1085827.6%16 W · 42 L-6.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-31.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked Arcade Esports48c333$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.8234542.3%146 W · 199 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41d1…bac0backed Abyssal61c303.53$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.356250%31 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4cf…2224backed Abyssal66c303.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.0322567.1%151 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Arcade Esports30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9099148.3%479 W · 512 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Arcade Esports44c292.6$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.844,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78dd…3235backed Abyssal56c284.56$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.562951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x114e…dcefbacked Arcade Esports49c279.8$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.864151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Arcade Esports36c261.74$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2112244.3%54 W · 68 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Arcade Esports36c259.22$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3255039.6%218 W · 332 L-20.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c6d…ab76backed Abyssal62c256.79$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.733849.7%168 W · 170 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d79…9e95backed Arcade Esports34c250$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8516349.1%80 W · 83 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42db…3816backed Arcade Esports32c250$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802123.8%5 W · 16 L-4.4wins-0.21per pick45cpaid-42.2%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Arcade Esports47c233.39$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.184,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Arcade Esports28c229$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.145,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc0e4…dd38backed Abyssal54c219.84$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.3637057%211 W · 159 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2899…707fbacked Arcade Esports26c208.77$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.28714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36d3…1b1fbacked Arcade Esports35c208.29$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a9…e7d8backed Arcade Esports43c202.91$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.257252.8%38 W · 34 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6c…0c16backed Arcade Esports48c197.42$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6319035.8%68 W · 122 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3df3…1411backed Abyssal79c195.57$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.634751.1%24 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x401d…23c6backed Abyssal48c185$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.729339.8%37 W · 56 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9135…8d9cbacked Arcade Esports31c165$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.158240.2%33 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Arcade Esports48c156.8$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.752,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x46e4…c6dabacked Arcade Esports54c148.14$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Arcade Esports28c147$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.71,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Abyssal68c145.28$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4939955.4%221 W · 178 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb361…7348backed Abyssal61c141.81$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.811353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Arcade Esports48c141.48$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.982,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Arcade Esports32c140.63$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4554543.5%237 W · 308 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Arcade Esports34c136.7$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1723244.8%104 W · 128 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64a3…450abacked Abyssal28c135$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.230349.8%151 W · 152 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Arcade Esports38c134$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.572,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb140…ce3dbacked Abyssal61c131.64$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.648351.8%43 W · 40 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf095…58c6backed Abyssal69c130.56$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5910356.3%58 W · 45 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0844…bf81backed Abyssal54c128.75$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7535148.1%169 W · 182 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Arcade Esports76c127.76$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.875833.4%253 W · 505 L-48.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c8c…2d81backed Arcade Esports35c127.48$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1245748.1%220 W · 237 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2b8…abf5backed Arcade Esports42c126.92$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.312352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08cc…472ebacked Arcade Esports38c122.65$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462025%5 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-44.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Arcade Esports38c118.42$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4522751.5%117 W · 110 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Abyssal44c117$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.993,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed Arcade Esports36c111.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4027438.3%105 W · 169 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Abyssal55c110$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.53,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked Abyssal55c108.92$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.612,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Arcade Esports48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.551,35252%703 W · 649 L+29.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc0…9d9cbacked Abyssal70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56e7…c2f0backed Abyssal55c90.54$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.541650%8 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Abyssal69c90$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.91,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed Abyssal30c88.48$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.8536649.5%181 W · 185 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed Abyssal57c87.54$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5424260.3%146 W · 96 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Arcade Esports37c85$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4510735.5%38 W · 69 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.