Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d4853f3a17dd0edb313e1595e01828e1ae19b4e0de308244f062ed0583670f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 75c | 300.48$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.07 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 270.68$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 228.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 72c | 212.81$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 210.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 79c | 150.01$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 140.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 69c | 135$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 130.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 24c | 128.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 34c | 116.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 99.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 81.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 78.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 30c | 77.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 77.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 51c | 65.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 72c | 64.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 60.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 23c | 56.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 49.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b4…f2c6backed Yes | 28c | 41.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 75c | 38.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…61babacked No | 74c | 38.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 57c | 35.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 36c | 31.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 30.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 28.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 43c | 24.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 71c | 22.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…bbeabacked No | 75c | 18.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.