Fifa International · resolved market
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d4b6db1a308b0b362b41b96c2ca36e19d7df681c6066e3382777a50c30d09c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75f0…2b66backed Over | 15c | 4,225$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.58 | 290 | 30.7%89 W · 201 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 5c | 2,687$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.19 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 24c | 1,109$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.24 | 205 | 60%123 W · 82 L | +17.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 78c | 950.08$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 14c | 921.57$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.02 | 438 | 26.3%115 W · 323 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 331 | 20.8%69 W · 262 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Under | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 156 | 55.1%86 W · 70 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 24c | 299.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 115 | 20%23 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…ea5cbacked Under | 75c | 262.43$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 257 | 27.2%70 W · 187 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +18.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 16c | 240$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 237 | 32.1%76 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Over | 12c | 234.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 365 | 43.3%158 W · 207 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2580…f1fabacked Over | 15c | 213.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 15c | 206.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 438 | 19.2%84 W · 354 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 16c | 187.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Over | 12c | 129$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 332 | 45.5%151 W · 181 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 22c | 113.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Over | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 14c | 109.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ec…fd3fbacked Under | 77c | 87.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e7…d4ccbacked Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 508 | 33.3%169 W · 339 L | -35.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 4.5this page
- Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 0.5Over won
- Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5Over won
- Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5Under won
- Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 3.5Under won
- Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Morocco (-1.5)Norway won
- Spread: Morocco (-2.5)Norway won
- Spread: Norway (-1.5)Morocco won
- Spread: Norway (-2.5)Morocco won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.