Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C or higher on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d718b8214a8ceb2be5575ea49d186f26940117cbba1e765290d638997c783eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b0…fb66backed No | 0c | 105,393$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.39 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed No | 2c | 659.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 54c | 425.01$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.03 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 27c | 328.16$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.19 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 67c | 294.81$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.72 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 34c | 275.77$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.23 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 66c | 225.56$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.87 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 192.33$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 34c | 150.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.03 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 67c | 144.59$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 31c | 137.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.09 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 35c | 127.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.1 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 77c | 124.38$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.69 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 80c | 107.48$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed No | 69c | 103.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 91.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf062…b4c6backed Yes | 34c | 83.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 32c | 74.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed Yes | 41c | 64.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 76c | 64.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed No | 76c | 61.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 56.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 56.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 33c | 55.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d7…1a16backed Yes | 73c | 55.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 67c | 54.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…a984backed No | 66c | 49.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed No | 66c | 43.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 67c | 43.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Yes | 42c | 39.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 65c | 38.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 30c | 33.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 30c | 33.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 66c | 24.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 60c | 19.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 68c | 19.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268e…dfaebacked No | 69c | 17.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…8623backed No | 70c | 17.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C or higher on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.