College Football · resolved market
Spread: Tennessee (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d73cd85377c5be5eb204d3ad66f626b1c65fde27e00da256a2a50f25bccd13b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vanderbiltof Tennessee, Vanderbilt
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Vanderbilt | 57c | 4,900$2,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,107.15 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Tennessee | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Tennessee | 43c | 1,500$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Tennessee | 40c | 1,031$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.66 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Tennessee | 39c | 724$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.9 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…1d1dbacked Vanderbilt | 61c | 655.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Vanderbilt | 55c | 619$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.8 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Tennessee | 43c | 395.35$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…b176backed Vanderbilt | 59c | 290.68$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.18 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Vanderbilt | 57c | 195.35$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Tennessee | 42c | 190.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Tennessee | 43c | 186.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Vanderbilt | 57c | 180.95$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.03 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…c16cbacked Vanderbilt | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Vanderbilt | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Tennessee | 42c | 84.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Tennessee | 43c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Vanderbilt | 59c | 24.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Tennessee | 42c | 23.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tennessee (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Tennessee (-2.5)Vanderbilt won
- Vanderbilt vs. TennesseeVanderbilt won
- Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee: O/U 65.5Over won
- Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee: O/U 66.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.