College Football · resolved market
Spread: Tennessee (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24682fbb37c1a9e56d7e7c8fab894fdcc54158f2691499f3c18bbbb9d093cba7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vanderbiltof Tennessee, Vanderbilt
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Tennessee | 49c | 36,108$17,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,672.03 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Vanderbilt | 51c | 27,846$14,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,559.02 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Vanderbilt | 49c | 23,748$11,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,157.32 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Tennessee | 50c | 19,000$9,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,540 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Vanderbilt | 50c | 13,714$6,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,857.15 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Tennessee | 51c | 11,127$5,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,697.44 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Tennessee | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Vanderbilt | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Vanderbilt | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Vanderbilt | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Tennessee | 51c | 2,734$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,394.01 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Vanderbilt | 40c | 2,368$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.5 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Tennessee | 60c | 2,168$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.5 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Vanderbilt | 50c | 1,875$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.5 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Tennessee | 51c | 1,426$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.26 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Tennessee | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Vanderbilt | 52c | 1,024$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.22 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Tennessee | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Vanderbilt | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Vanderbilt | 49c | 202$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.42 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Tennessee | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Tennessee | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Vanderbilt | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Vanderbilt | 52c | 104$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Tennessee | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Vanderbilt | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…457fbacked Tennessee | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae5…b896backed Vanderbilt | 49c | 99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Vanderbilt | 49c | 53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…8497backed Tennessee | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Tennessee | 48c | 42.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 269 | 39.8%107 W · 162 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Tennessee | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Tennessee | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Vanderbilt | 51c | 20.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…12d0backed Vanderbilt | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tennessee (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Tennessee (-3.5)Vanderbilt won
- Vanderbilt vs. TennesseeVanderbilt won
- Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee: O/U 65.5Over won
- Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee: O/U 66.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.