NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Hornets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d823646ea26f773850f964b07c3e9fd0a0d855fcb1676d84064b3f85b66ae0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb228…2734backed Hornets | 15c | 7,196$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.58 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Hornets | 18c | 4,240$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.79 | 461 | 31%143 W · 318 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Hornets | 17c | 2,073$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.37 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8af…f391backed Hornets | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +33%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…e0febacked Hornets | 11c | 1,870$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0150…a67abacked Hornets | 18c | 1,784$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd968…bd18backed Hornets | 17c | 1,041$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.98 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Hornets | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Hornets | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 265 | 47.9%127 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…0cbebacked Hornets | 18c | 864.17$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4201…4334backed Hornets | 20c | 829.07$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…ed08backed Hornets | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed Hornets | 17c | 601.19$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.19 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Hornets | 17c | 571.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…63abbacked Hornets | 8c | 555.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Hornets | 9c | 532.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Hornets | 8c | 524.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…2392backed Hornets | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42dd…48b7backed Hornets | 12c | 444.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Celtics | 80c | 433.21$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…053ebacked Hornets | 16c | 399.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6d…81c2backed Hornets | 8c | 359.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Hornets | 7c | 307.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3321…eafebacked Hornets | 10c | 306.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88c…4426backed Hornets | 7c | 276.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e2ebbacked Hornets | 10c | 263.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59b…488ebacked Hornets | 16c | 260.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 723 | 41.2%298 W · 425 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…28debacked Hornets | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3b…a436backed Hornets | 19c | 235.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb1…f7eebacked Hornets | 7c | 221.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…7336backed Hornets | 19c | 220$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 183 | 16.9%31 W · 152 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a49…413fbacked Hornets | 11c | 210.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Hornets | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…3bffbacked Hornets | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…e74ebacked Hornets | 9c | 169$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…39a1backed Hornets | 17c | 167$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 487 | 41.9%204 W · 283 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88d1…d279backed Hornets | 18c | 166.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…3996backed Hornets | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f8…5660backed Hornets | 16c | 148.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 104 | 40.4%42 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Hornets | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb67c…05cebacked Hornets | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Hornets | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 774 | 37.5%290 W · 484 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Hornets | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.