Tennis · resolved market
ITF Horb: Margaux Maquet vs Francesca Parcelli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d974d9da05b8302f5347144f719eb1384df9e729acc064fcf266ac798b2c681
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Francesca Parcelliof Margaux Maquet, Francesca Parcelli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa042…cba4backed Margaux Maquet | 45c | 7,536$3,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,393.76 | 275 | 49.1%135 W · 140 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Francesca Parcelli | 55c | 2,761$1,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.71 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Francesca Parcelli | 63c | 1,477$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.86 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Margaux Maquet | 3c | 521.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 179 | 36.9%66 W · 113 L | +9.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Margaux Maquet | 75c | 375.75$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.3 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Francesca Parcelli | 25c | 359$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.25 | 391 | 35.8%140 W · 251 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Francesca Parcelli | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 359 | 32.6%117 W · 242 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Margaux Maquet | 19c | 275.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Francesca Parcelli | 23c | 230.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.43 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Francesca Parcelli | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Francesca Parcelli | 37c | 210$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Margaux Maquet | 73c | 186.63$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.24 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Francesca Parcelli | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 363 | 49.6%180 W · 183 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Margaux Maquet | 55c | 175.58$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.81 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…0454backed Francesca Parcelli | 66c | 151.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae6a…de5ebacked Francesca Parcelli | 72c | 125.54$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 244 | 59.4%145 W · 99 L | +21.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…8ef6backed Margaux Maquet | 29c | 101.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Francesca Parcelli | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Margaux Maquet | 77c | 99.04$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.26 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Margaux Maquet | 28c | 96.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Margaux Maquet | 74c | 72.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Francesca Parcelli | 64c | 64.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Francesca Parcelli | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Francesca Parcelli | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Francesca Parcelli | 56c | 36.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Francesca Parcelli | 48c | 34.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…30f1backed Francesca Parcelli | 70c | 33.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Margaux Maquet | 37c | 30.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…d7b5backed Margaux Maquet | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 525 | 52.4%275 W · 250 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Francesca Parcelli | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Francesca Parcelli | 58c | 18.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 355 | 55.5%197 W · 158 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Margaux Maquet | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf2…898ebacked Francesca Parcelli | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6209…6767backed Margaux Maquet | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.