Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d9f49a5425fd04a3b48acb1bf3f309cf12caa0783770e4f73bccb2d61b19347
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,890 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ee7…9c56backed Yes | 78c | 386.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.04 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 307.58$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.49 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 39c | 260.9$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.31 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…2f9fbacked No | 33c | 259.81$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 18c | 227.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 209.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.12 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 58c | 169.04$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.61 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 166$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 164.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 61c | 163.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 35c | 153.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 43c | 139$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.97 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 58c | 136.03$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 56c | 124.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 118.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…54b5backed Yes | 51c | 114.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d6…e222backed No | 66c | 109.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.66 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 72c | 103.13$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 99.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.73 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf2…cdf3backed No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 94.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 91.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 47c | 87.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…e97cbacked Yes | 41c | 84.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 39c | 66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 80c | 63.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 20c | 63.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.53 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac5…154cbacked Yes | 65c | 61.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 60.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 57.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 49c | 53.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 40c | 52.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 48.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Yes | 32c | 47.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed Yes | 69c | 46.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 59c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35df…84d2backed No | 45c | 44.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 28c | 44.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 60c | 41.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 40c | 39.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…6e16backed No | 67c | 38.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc070…69e0backed Yes | 57c | 38.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 38.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…0199backed Yes | 54c | 37.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9f…132bbacked No | 65c | 35.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0027…24acbacked Yes | 44c | 34.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +80%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce8…a139backed Yes | 46c | 30.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215e…71acbacked Yes | 39c | 29.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 43c | 29.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 43c | 27.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 71c | 26.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dc…c469backed Yes | 39c | 25.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb62…6747backed Yes | 40c | 25.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed No | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 65c | 22.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe675…b825backed Yes | 49c | 20.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or higher on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.