Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dc0ad1b12966a7699521ef2ab7849a3866047cac7afe0ebf189441b07099bcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,362 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 1,232$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.46 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 6c | 1,111$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 18c | 768.01$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.12 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 7c | 539.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.96 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 4c | 435.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 431.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.38 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 5c | 266.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 77c | 260$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 53c | 229.77$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.07 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 223.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Yes | 8c | 186.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 8c | 180.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.29 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 170.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 12c | 161.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.31 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 12c | 159.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.86 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 45c | 156.32$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.72 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 77c | 154$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 37c | 150$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 25c | 149.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.98 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb47…b128backed Yes | 9c | 111.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf29d…2d25backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 13c | 90.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.71 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 35c | 90.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 75c | 76.44$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee5b…8abcbacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 43.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 51c | 39.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 74c | 32.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…1422backed No | 55c | 24.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 15.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C or higher on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C or below on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.