Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7beb2c391c3381363aa3b0343164b30e6700da2be304ea9ef294eabca3308f3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,123 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae9c…ebd6backed Yes | 0c | 5,040$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 2c | 1,193$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 6c | 714.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 404.52$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 268.68$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 58c | 186.33$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.81 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 181.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 54c | 180$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.21 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 164.96$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…b05ebacked Yes | 44c | 158.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 34c | 156.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfad…e89bbacked Yes | 53c | 148.18$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 52c | 144.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.61 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 56c | 142.59$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 58c | 141.59$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 76c | 131.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 127.75$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 105.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 48c | 101.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 96.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 11c | 95.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 50c | 90.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 87.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 39c | 86.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 54c | 78.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…d3b7backed Yes | 34c | 74.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 19c | 73.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 49c | 70.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 68.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…c957backed No | 53c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 46c | 64.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 45c | 61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 49c | 60.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 50c | 59.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ffa9backed No | 46c | 55.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 45c | 55.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 49c | 55.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 48c | 51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 49c | 50.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…9ef3backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa864…abf3backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed No | 50c | 49.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 32c | 47.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 64c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 62c | 45.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 31c | 45.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 49c | 45.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 43c | 44.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed Yes | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 40.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…24e5backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 46c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 50c | 39.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 39c | 38.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 40c | 37.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 42c | 35.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 55c | 35.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 46c | 32.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 46c | 32.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 31.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 53c | 30.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 66c | 30.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf585…aae1backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c3…8f47backed Yes | 53c | 29.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e79…29b3backed Yes | 53c | 29.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee5b…8abcbacked No | 77c | 28.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…a005backed Yes | 52c | 28.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 53c | 28.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf6…87f6backed Yes | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 53c | 26.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 55c | 23.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 51c | 22.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…0c4ebacked No | 56c | 20.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf29d…2d25backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…3039backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C or higher on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C or below on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.