Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fb95a20761262285654eb10ab773ee0874c8fb075b64527cb659d89fc8cb565
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,589 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 46c | 666.08$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.67 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 56c | 459.41$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.27 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 449.97$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 43c | 275.67$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 8c | 229.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 70c | 207.46$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.2 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 49c | 202.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.21 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 60c | 200$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 198.34$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 197.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 170.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 164.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 34c | 161.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.99 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 36c | 157.31$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 126.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 46c | 126.07$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 70c | 125.13$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 63c | 123.67$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed No | 71c | 123.59$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 67c | 117.13$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed Yes | 32c | 116.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed No | 34c | 116$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 114.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 113.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 109.87$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…4e72backed No | 70c | 105$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 32c | 99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 77c | 96$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 94.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 34c | 90.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 90.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 89.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 34c | 88.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 87.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 51c | 86.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…8894backed No | 65c | 82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 24c | 78.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 46c | 76.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…71b3backed Yes | 58c | 73.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 68.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 38c | 68.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b48…fcf0backed Yes | 31c | 64.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +56%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 71c | 61.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 33c | 61.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 18c | 61.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 70c | 61.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e2…6bf6backed Yes | 42c | 59.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 34c | 58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 56.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed Yes | 36c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 33c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8d…4e44backed Yes | 69c | 53.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…a005backed Yes | 29c | 51.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 65c | 50.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 29c | 50.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 64c | 47.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 24c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 30c | 46.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Yes | 45c | 43.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 70c | 42.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 33c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9c…ebd6backed Yes | 54c | 39.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 69c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 68c | 36.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 43c | 34.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…7ae0backed Yes | 78c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 55c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 46c | 31.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 69c | 31.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed No | 66c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 69c | 30.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 70c | 29.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 68c | 29.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…bb32backed No | 69c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 70c | 25.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 63c | 24.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 23.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 64c | 23.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C or higher on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C or below on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.