Ukraine · resolved market
Will Ukraine take the Kursk Nuclear Plant by Aug 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dc20dec14f65344dd405005777cf8c3d5fa4a5d0c9fafa3874fee1dd6acd4e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $222,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $197,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $222,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 1c | 18,699$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.72 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 16,483$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed Yes | 4c | 15,999$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 3c | 10,888$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…ccfcbacked Yes | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5143…432ebacked Yes | 8c | 8,807$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 4c | 4,303$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 4,242$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.43 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e2…0f38backed Yes | 1c | 3,717$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +163.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 1c | 3,300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc0…195abacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07f…8fd3backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 12c | 1,970$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8a…c0f3backed Yes | 10c | 1,652$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaa…6f38backed Yes | 2c | 1,645$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…2ad1backed Yes | 5c | 1,480$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1cd8backed Yes | 6c | 1,450$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 1c | 1,385$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…6870backed Yes | 6c | 1,333$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked Yes | 5c | 1,291$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9588…d801backed Yes | 4c | 1,206$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc39…d0a8backed Yes | 9c | 1,117$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8289…8bf6backed Yes | 12c | 1,092$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…e4a5backed Yes | 10c | 1,008$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a4…7441backed Yes | 10c | 1,001$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e76…ef4ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a1…0ff3backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…1010backed Yes | 6c | 999.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb30…e635backed Yes | 5c | 955.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84e…f7bfbacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…2cc5backed Yes | 2c | 869.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb228…2734backed Yes | 3c | 777.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a5…98d0backed Yes | 9c | 666.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a4…cd8cbacked Yes | 8c | 644.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df5…d32bbacked Yes | 8c | 593.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4710…db50backed Yes | 6c | 551.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f1…7b16backed Yes | 7c | 549.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 22cpaid | +675.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f37…baa4backed Yes | 4c | 524.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2d…2ab5backed Yes | 4c | 507.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…e30ebacked Yes | 7c | 466.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052d…e36abacked Yes | 10c | 456$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 6c | 434.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ee…7cbcbacked Yes | 14c | 385.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…bd4ebacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…7b7cbacked Yes | 4c | 260$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…085bbacked Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c7…17fdbacked Yes | 4c | 243.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0513…2157backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…ff4bbacked Yes | 7c | 192.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…c9a0backed Yes | 9c | 186.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f5…1a2abacked Yes | 11c | 183.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e2…a10cbacked Yes | 8c | 156.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed Yes | 10c | 149$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…e4f6backed Yes | 7c | 142.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba25…aa2cbacked Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a3…aafcbacked Yes | 9c | 106.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x244d…835ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…e44bbacked Yes | 19c | 72.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.