College Football · resolved market
Stanford vs. San José State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dea0c87f4f86bcd15adc0e2ddb3d68eb6806db0f3e7ad0afc595bfed67432e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San José Stateof Stanford, San José State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x438e…9704backed San José State | 62c | 2,933$1,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.22 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd889…cf51backed Stanford | 51c | 2,453$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b7…9360backed San José State | 56c | 1,962$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.44 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Stanford | 42c | 1,636$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.6 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…d9ebbacked Stanford | 27c | 1,290$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.81 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Stanford | 44c | 1,266$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.15 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed San José State | 41c | 1,222$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed Stanford | 44c | 1,001$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.24 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed San José State | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ea…2ba7backed San José State | 80c | 710$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Stanford | 4c | 696.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Stanford | 50c | 605.72$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.13 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Stanford | 30c | 448.79$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.67 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Stanford | 31c | 427.12$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.39 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked San José State | 58c | 396.66$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.7 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked San José State | 64c | 391.56$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.56 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x795c…d2eabacked Stanford | 19c | 349.47$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked Stanford | 44c | 343$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.07 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778a…1a6dbacked San José State | 56c | 261.48$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e44…79c9backed San José State | 71c | 258.39$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.96 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…e239backed Stanford | 33c | 237.62$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Stanford | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed San José State | 56c | 199.75$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.16 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed San José State | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Stanford | 13c | 174.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 309 | 49.5%153 W · 156 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…17d8backed Stanford | 41c | 146.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…bde1backed San José State | 38c | 131.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4af1…ef00backed Stanford | 44c | 119.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Stanford | 43c | 113.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Stanford | 44c | 104.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8b…4f21backed San José State | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…a572backed San José State | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…b43cbacked San José State | 54c | 99.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Stanford | 44c | 98.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked San José State | 59c | 73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…ce77backed Stanford | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f14…b199backed Stanford | 42c | 49.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…44d9backed San José State | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed San José State | 56c | 39.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…2f4bbacked San José State | 55c | 38.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…d0f6backed Stanford | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 69cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…5241backed Stanford | 60c | 30.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…5346backed Stanford | 59c | 25.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f36…2305backed San José State | 60c | 23.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa135…9974backed Stanford | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed San José State | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.