Tennis · resolved market
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Ilia Simakin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e0efc3b9daac7f65f2f5c0da39b0f171bf8dc3ef66db90fd9c087c316418fe2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marco Cecchinatoof Marco Cecchinato, Ilia Simakin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Ilia Simakin | 12c | 1,665$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.91 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Ilia Simakin | 13c | 1,489$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.47 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Ilia Simakin | 13c | 1,079$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.36 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Ilia Simakin | 12c | 775.32$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74bd…d371backed Ilia Simakin | 13c | 759.14$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.69 | 421 | 25.7%108 W · 313 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Ilia Simakin | 24c | 633.24$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.83 | 578 | 42.4%245 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea8…25f9backed Marco Cecchinato | 78c | 553.67$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.86 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Ilia Simakin | 15c | 524.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Ilia Simakin | 8c | 455$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Marco Cecchinato | 78c | 334.92$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20b4…bfa2backed Ilia Simakin | 11c | 295.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 335 | 40.9%137 W · 198 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Ilia Simakin | 15c | 265$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Marco Cecchinato | 76c | 259.74$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.34 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Ilia Simakin | 24c | 208.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…b1ccbacked Ilia Simakin | 24c | 208.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 392 | 54.1%212 W · 180 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe6…a99fbacked Ilia Simakin | 13c | 206$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 753 | 12.2%92 W · 661 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…3b08backed Marco Cecchinato | 76c | 197.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 509 | 58%295 W · 214 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ilia Simakin | 11c | 183.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9f…8473backed Ilia Simakin | 13c | 174.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Ilia Simakin | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a0…4469backed Ilia Simakin | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…0063backed Ilia Simakin | 11c | 133.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Marco Cecchinato | 76c | 131.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Ilia Simakin | 11c | 95.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2,049 | 46.8%958 W · 1,091 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Marco Cecchinato | 75c | 82.7$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Ilia Simakin | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 304 | 36.8%112 W · 192 L | -19.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Ilia Simakin | 17c | 79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef59…41f6backed Ilia Simakin | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…85febacked Marco Cecchinato | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 726 | 51.8%376 W · 350 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…206cbacked Ilia Simakin | 24c | 61.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 856 | 37.7%323 W · 533 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071f…92bdbacked Marco Cecchinato | 76c | 44.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 1,076 | 73.8%794 W · 282 L | +41.1wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d75…26fbbacked Marco Cecchinato | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 163 | 58.9%96 W · 67 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…9a00backed Marco Cecchinato | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 201 | 58.7%118 W · 83 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ded…68a3backed Marco Cecchinato | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 885 | 60.2%533 W · 352 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f25…4f11backed Marco Cecchinato | 77c | 33.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Marco Cecchinato | 76c | 32.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95e…102abacked Marco Cecchinato | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Marco Cecchinato | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Marco Cecchinato | 76c | 19.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…4b12backed Marco Cecchinato | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Marco Cecchinato | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 898 | 59.7%536 W · 362 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Marco Cecchinato | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.