Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e1107b66b5aa6c8146929a151f8dc9b455c361fe7e0ec9955bf4c7190549080
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 332.18$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.54 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 320.2$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 285.86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 71c | 284.19$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.08 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 255.72$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.46 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 23c | 242.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.53 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 74c | 225.64$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.94 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 33c | 212.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 30c | 153.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.03 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 18c | 117.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.89 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 19c | 96.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.94 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 17c | 91.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 47c | 81.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 65c | 81.03$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 80.63$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 79.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 20c | 77.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 69.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…25ffbacked No | 72c | 67.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +7.8wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 22c | 63.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c4b7backed Yes | 42c | 54.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +233%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 51.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 20c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 58c | 44.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 30c | 44.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 58c | 43.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 78c | 38.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 45c | 36.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…07f3backed Yes | 37c | 27.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 46c | 22.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 79c | 22.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 57c | 17.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 74c | 13.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.