Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Frech (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e1b46b745e04b4271b5cf861d17691627a0965b20579ca61a2461157f58fdbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Osakaof Osaka, Frech
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e33…73e7backed Osaka | 57c | 528.51$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.51 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Frech | 43c | 403.72$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.6 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Frech | 40c | 273.58$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.58 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Osaka | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Frech | 44c | 158.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.95 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Osaka | 53c | 73.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 374 | 36.4%136 W · 238 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb78a…61c4backed Osaka | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 153 | 64.1%98 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…2be9backed Osaka | 53c | 37.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 148 | 41.9%62 W · 86 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Osaka | 56c | 35.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Frech | 47c | 32.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8d…4f5cbacked Frech | 51c | 28.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Osaka | 49c | 28.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Osaka | 52c | 22.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Frech | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Frech (+1.5)this page
- Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena FrechNaomi Osaka won
- Osaka vs. Frech: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Osaka vs. Frech: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Osaka vs FrechOsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.