Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Pedro Martinez vs Novak Djokovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e44fc9e0580c26d1b67efbf14df97e83eb79d231cced32abecd19dee7c55cbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Djokovicof Martinez, Djokovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Martinez | 2c | 39,671$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.8 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Martinez | 1c | 5,744$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Martinez | 3c | 3,921$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.99 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Martinez | 5c | 3,022$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.69 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Martinez | 5c | 2,989$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.65 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Martinez | 6c | 2,929$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.78 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Martinez | 4c | 2,530$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.35 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Martinez | 1c | 2,530$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Martinez | 2c | 2,345$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 191 | 34%65 W · 126 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Martinez | 7c | 1,835$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.68 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Martinez | 5c | 1,623$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Martinez | 7c | 1,514$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.9 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Martinez | 4c | 943.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Martinez | 5c | 855.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Martinez | 7c | 753.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Martinez | 3c | 718.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Martinez | 4c | 700$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked Martinez | 5c | 691.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Martinez | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Martinez | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Martinez | 5c | 563.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -10.2wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…566bbacked Martinez | 5c | 524.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Martinez | 5c | 494.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x157e…7acabacked Martinez | 6c | 423.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d5…4af2backed Martinez | 6c | 362.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Martinez | 6c | 335$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed Martinez | 4c | 326.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 579 | 39.7%230 W · 349 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…ccb8backed Martinez | 6c | 320$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…01cbbacked Martinez | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Martinez | 6c | 256$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…6dffbacked Martinez | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Martinez | 5c | 232.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 156 | 5.8%9 W · 147 L | -32.4wins | -0.21per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x656b…4600backed Martinez | 6c | 161.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Pedro Martinez vs Novak Djokovicthis page
- Martinez vs. Djokovic: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Martinez vs. Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Martinez vs DjokovicDjokovic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.