Bundesliga · resolved market
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Paderborn 07 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e5e47f30babf0322d8e73c98b91e419e8e2e97d3983ee6b0ba2b271544325d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x219e…14d9backed No | 74c | 411$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.86 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 398.78$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.01 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 370$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 27c | 370$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 26c | 335.81$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.31 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 49c | 243$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.07 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 52c | 221.55$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.71 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed No | 44c | 177.86$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Yes | 56c | 177.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 73c | 149.98$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 26c | 81.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac4…8734backed Yes | 27c | 50.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 51c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cf…7da5backed Yes | 56c | 23.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 68c | 16.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x458b…67edbacked No | 79c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b1…0c12backed No | 73c | 14.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 76c | 14.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc893…9241backed No | 78c | 13.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Paderborn 07 end in a draw?this page
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-02-01?No won
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-02-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.