Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-02-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78d774d22d71eff9e5c8c4bb41eff7fa8413a977519aeaaaba0288285456194c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed No | 40c | 18,932$7,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,335.87 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 58c | 2,579$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.77 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 39c | 1,570$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.29 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked No | 41c | 1,536$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.51 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 36c | 1,421$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.43 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked No | 60c | 1,200$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.25 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 70c | 999.99$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4160…e42dbacked Yes | 30c | 999.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 57c | 702.57$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.31 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 60c | 557.36$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.81 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 22c | 318.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 42c | 266.67$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…30a0backed Yes | 65c | 205$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.25 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaffc…fab4backed No | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Yes | 49c | 125.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 36c | 121.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.45 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Yes | 41c | 102.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…625dbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…eeefbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed No | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Yes | 24c | 84.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 56c | 73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cb…2208backed No | 59c | 66.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 64c | 55.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 36c | 52.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c73ebacked Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…6fbdbacked Yes | 62c | 32.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed No | 59c | 28.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5325…c0b5backed No | 59c | 25.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…150dbacked No | 59c | 24.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7d…4132backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-02-01?this page
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Paderborn 07 end in a draw?No won
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-02-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.