Bundesliga · resolved market
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-02-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x604b9c9978362570c63c7e29cab1659b4da11d1494469cb14a163810374bc65e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 70c | 3,265$2,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,290.1 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 15c | 2,029$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.16 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 19c | 830$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.53 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 33c | 601.08$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.82 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 36c | 400$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.25 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 13c | 307.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…30a0backed Yes | 37c | 299.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.99 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 70c | 230.4$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.99 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 32c | 220.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.34 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…80f9backed No | 11c | 214.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d8…e7d2backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…8423backed Yes | 40c | 160$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed No | 63c | 146.8$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.48 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 43c | 129.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 43c | 102.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Yes | 10c | 102$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…2a85backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked Yes | 31c | 99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.71 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 37c | 81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 30c | 78.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e7…1872backed No | 63c | 25.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 53cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 70c | 21.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f93…dd62backed No | 70c | 19.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-02-01?this page
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-02-01?No won
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Paderborn 07 end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.