Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e76013a5cfb7a4523a688da659cc684423dbb620592313eeb6458f4096aa67f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 75c | 933.3$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.31 | 228 | 34.2%78 W · 150 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 24c | 668.96$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.76 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 7c | 569.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 75c | 440.09$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.58 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 66c | 241.75$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 1,184 | 57.4%680 W · 504 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 26c | 236$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.26 | 2,230 | 23.8%531 W · 1,699 L | +89.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 22c | 220.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.08 | 923 | 29.1%269 W · 654 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 74c | 209.42$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.97 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 65c | 195.67$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 1,458 | 27.8%406 W · 1,052 L | +77.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 75c | 143.63$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.32 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 131$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 16c | 127.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 119$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.14 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 75c | 118$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.35 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 76c | 102.78$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 300 | 32%96 W · 204 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 22c | 89.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 88.69$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.22 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 26c | 77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +15.7wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +163.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3122…9d2fbacked Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 75c | 69.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 76c | 69.32$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…323dbacked Yes | 25c | 69.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 25c | 67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 76c | 65.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked No | 73c | 56.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 55.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 55.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 30c | 53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…f9e0backed No | 75c | 52.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1f9bbacked Yes | 26c | 51.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 97 | 12.4%12 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 41.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebcc…108fbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 57c | 37.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 33.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 70c | 29.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…c1fdbacked No | 76c | 26.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 78c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.