College Football · resolved market
Arizona State vs. Arizona
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e919a1d1cc93c1718e9f2e1fc1092255cb06e83576bd914cfddccde3a174d18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Stateof Arizona State, Arizona
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcede…d9ebbacked Arizona | 16c | 2,050$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.5 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Arizona | 2c | 887.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Arizona State | 74c | 537.28$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.69 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Arizona | 4c | 480$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6b…1262backed Arizona State | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a6…5ceebacked Arizona State | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Arizona | 29c | 198.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Arizona State | 71c | 188.96$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Arizona | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…44d9backed Arizona State | 76c | 131.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Arizona State | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…a572backed Arizona State | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Arizona | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked Arizona | 25c | 75.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…f458backed Arizona State | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…4e3dbacked Arizona State | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 71cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21a2…866dbacked Arizona State | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…947fbacked Arizona State | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.