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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 24?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,194
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,608

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,194 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x180e…29dfbacked No74c496.83$368 inWon+$129.1862960.3%379 W · 250 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x508a…0f3fbacked Yes26c358.48$93 inLost-$93.230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba9d…46efbacked Yes25c275.55$70 inLost-$707330.1%22 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes8c269.42$22 inLost-$22.210,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes5c221.42$12 inLost-$11.7518319.7%36 W · 147 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed No74c198.73$147 inWon+$51.6725158.6%147 W · 104 L+14.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes26c185.95$48 inLost-$48.3524349.4%120 W · 123 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39b4…fc14backed Yes26c150$39 inLost-$3922047.7%105 W · 115 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed Yes26c143.81$37 inLost-$37.3917538.9%68 W · 107 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No72c138.86$100 inWon+$38.881,04868.7%720 W · 328 L-33.6wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed Yes21c119$25 inLost-$24.991,82662.9%1,149 W · 677 L-8.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes17c100.76$17 inLost-$17.137,59237.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L+96.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ac…cae8backed Yes20c100$20 inLost-$203729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6639…7a83backed Yes26c76$20 inLost-$19.761838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes21c71.42$15 inLost-$1546736.8%172 W · 295 L+1.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf27a…78d8backed Yes22c68.62$15 inLost-$1525642.2%108 W · 148 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes25c67$16 inLost-$16.461,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes20c59.5$12 inLost-$11.951,15425%289 W · 865 L+30.0wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No79c53.1$42 inWon+$11.022,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17d2…4142backed Yes26c48.73$13 inLost-$12.675942.4%25 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c80…c3ddbacked No72c41$29 inWon+$11.536666.7%44 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No79c32.51$26 inWon+$6.8381124.8%201 W · 610 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed No77c29.48$23 inWon+$6.7847845.2%216 W · 262 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6199…ece4backed No72c27$19 inWon+$7.566672.7%48 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7c…34e7backed No73c15$11 inWon+$4.0526267.6%177 W · 85 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.