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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 24?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,964
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,859

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,964 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xba9d…46efbacked Yes36c310.44$113 inLost-$112.857330.1%22 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1570…de29backed No77c182.94$140 inWon+$42.9447758.7%280 W · 197 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes24c176.2$42 inLost-$41.8953548.2%258 W · 277 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes37c149.2$55 inLost-$54.8890155.7%502 W · 399 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed No65c138.05$90 inWon+$48.361,45827.8%406 W · 1,052 L+77.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No65c111$72 inWon+$38.9589259.8%533 W · 359 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No63c109.89$69 inWon+$40.915,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No62c102.35$64 inWon+$38.691,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed Yes27c100$27 inLost-$2744139%172 W · 269 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No73c99.98$73 inWon+$26.991,85842.7%793 W · 1,065 L+50.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c97.09$19 inLost-$19.427,59237.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L+96.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes37c84.43$31 inLost-$31.3412,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked No80c81.98$65 inWon+$16.735648.6%173 W · 183 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No63c81.66$51 inWon+$30.214,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes17c76.09$13 inLost-$12.9110,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No67c72.47$49 inWon+$23.781124.8%201 W · 610 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No62c66.23$41 inWon+$25.171,27452.5%669 W · 605 L-17.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6809…eae7backed No60c60.23$36 inWon+$23.993969.2%27 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes21c57.77$12 inLost-$1255942.6%238 W · 321 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes31c51.32$16 inLost-$15.7755026.9%148 W · 402 L-66.5wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-33.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes31c49.57$15 inLost-$15.384,00947.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L+71.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes23c49$11 inLost-$11.2958850.9%299 W · 289 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x402f…6d99backed Yes43c46.61$20 inLost-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…b70cbacked Yes41c46.05$19 inLost-$19.041442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-18.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes27c44.93$12 inLost-$12.2312,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0xb530…3c03backed Yes27c39.8$11 inLost-$10.757913.9%11 W · 68 L-7.4wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-42.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8629…ce84backed No66c30.05$20 inWon+$10.369661.5%59 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf361…08f6backed No60c30$18 inWon+$129959.6%59 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No64c26.41$17 inWon+$9.5550462.3%314 W · 190 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed No58c23.8$14 inWon+$9.9947845.2%216 W · 262 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No78c23.25$18 inWon+$5.1157158.1%332 W · 239 L-28.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes48c22.03$11 inLost-$10.5647436.7%174 W · 300 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfca6…6595backed No76c20$15 inWon+$4.812064.2%77 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No61c19.66$12 inWon+$7.6793461.8%577 W · 357 L+2.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No72c18.81$14 inWon+$5.211,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No63c18$11 inWon+$6.7450661.3%310 W · 196 L+42.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+10.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.