Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c695ff78101e86cf1f8e4b2e49f5bc59289540fb5c742b09df1cf9d7c082c28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 31c | 326.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.6 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 71c | 242.41$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.11 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 5c | 236$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 22c | 188.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 25c | 149.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 140.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.02 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 128.12$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.86 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 75c | 119.41$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 96 | 83.3%80 W · 16 L | +20.8wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 441 | 39%172 W · 269 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 70c | 97.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed No | 67c | 94.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 67c | 84.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 80.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 77.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9cd1backed Yes | 25c | 77.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 65c | 58.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 54.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 51.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 25c | 49.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 232 | 37.5%87 W · 145 L | +30.6wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…c191backed No | 64c | 47.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 62cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 29c | 42.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 71c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 37c | 40.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,032 | 31.3%949 W · 2,083 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 70c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,102 | 51.7%570 W · 532 L | +74.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 37.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 69c | 34.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…1ca0backed No | 55c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 194 | 21.6%42 W · 152 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 71c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1,417 | 65.2%924 W · 493 L | +59.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…e067backed Yes | 64c | 29.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 66 | 72.7%48 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 68c | 26.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 77c | 22.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 442 | 51.4%227 W · 215 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 386 | 52.8%204 W · 182 L | -25.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 75c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 934 | 61.8%577 W · 357 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 71c | 17.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1,322 | 75.9%1,004 W · 318 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…eae7backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.