CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Fingers Crossed vs ARCRED (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0eb1c6f465e41b8ea7291b733e2eef1f164ad572e9a55fdecec5a1d411013ba5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fingers Crossedof Fingers Crossed, ARCRED
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fe8…3549backed Fingers Crossed | 50c | 12,655$6,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,380.53 | 139 | 54.7%76 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1307…d640backed ARCRED | 50c | 6,300$3,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,150 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…5b10backed ARCRED | 53c | 4,573$2,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,437.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked ARCRED | 55c | 3,029$1,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,663.36 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed Fingers Crossed | 45c | 2,500$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375 | 849 | 58.3%495 W · 354 L | +60.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcf…48e1backed ARCRED | 50c | 2,120$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.1 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…38d3backed Fingers Crossed | 45c | 1,159$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.29 | 242 | 33.9%82 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked ARCRED | 58c | 866.85$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 362 | 53.3%193 W · 169 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…2dd6backed ARCRED | 11c | 776.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Fingers Crossed | 45c | 638.38$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.81 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda5…53d7backed ARCRED | 78c | 510.01$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.81 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Fingers Crossed | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 970 | 40.7%395 W · 575 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed ARCRED | 50c | 499.76$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.88 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cee…1ac0backed ARCRED | 60c | 456.32$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.22 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Fingers Crossed | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Fingers Crossed | 56c | 396.69$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.69 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…48bebacked ARCRED | 57c | 388.77$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.98 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed ARCRED | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Fingers Crossed | 64c | 299.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 384 | 52.3%201 W · 183 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed ARCRED | 50c | 292.08$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…29e8backed ARCRED | 58c | 283.18$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.06 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Fingers Crossed | 32c | 250$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 660 | 34.1%225 W · 435 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…03d4backed Fingers Crossed | 45c | 241.11$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.11 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Fingers Crossed | 48c | 235.21$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.3 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Fingers Crossed | 47c | 222.34$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.84 | 462 | 43.3%200 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked ARCRED | 46c | 220.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 656 | 62.3%409 W · 247 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f35…514fbacked ARCRED | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35dc…0083backed Fingers Crossed | 33c | 198.96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.06 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Fingers Crossed | 47c | 186.5$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.53 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked ARCRED | 42c | 126.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 386 | 36%139 W · 247 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed ARCRED | 51c | 111.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe71c…0d30backed ARCRED | 57c | 110$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Fingers Crossed | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…0525backed ARCRED | 50c | 84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37a3…60a2backed Fingers Crossed | 44c | 83.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd295…0fe6backed Fingers Crossed | 61c | 82.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…2fc7backed Fingers Crossed | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 434 | 42.2%183 W · 251 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1285…2d0fbacked ARCRED | 43c | 73.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…b459backed Fingers Crossed | 33c | 72.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +156%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…fb01backed ARCRED | 44c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked ARCRED | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Fingers Crossed | 53c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Fingers Crossed | 31c | 53.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 291 | 28.5%83 W · 208 L | -30.2wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked ARCRED | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6827…26fdbacked Fingers Crossed | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 112 | 46.4%52 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…34f7backed ARCRED | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed ARCRED | 51c | 49.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 248 | 50.4%125 W · 123 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed ARCRED | 50c | 48.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 154 | 42.2%65 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Fingers Crossed | 41c | 48.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 317 | 35.6%113 W · 204 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3275…de1ebacked Fingers Crossed | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Fingers Crossed | 79c | 43.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 126 | 69%87 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Fingers Crossed | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…de7cbacked Fingers Crossed | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec48…d04cbacked Fingers Crossed | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4c…77bdbacked Fingers Crossed | 63c | 33.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c21…c02bbacked Fingers Crossed | 35c | 31.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed Fingers Crossed | 48c | 25.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 410 | 54.6%224 W · 186 L | +29.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5241…809ebacked Fingers Crossed | 50c | 23.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3717…b35bbacked Fingers Crossed | 70c | 23.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…665bbacked ARCRED | 50c | 22.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd761…56e3backed ARCRED | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 247 | 46.2%114 W · 133 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Fingers Crossed vs ARCRED (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: Fingers Crossed vs ARCRED - Map 1 WinnerFingers Crossed won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.