Tennis · resolved market
Japan Women's Open: Jaqueline Cristian vs Tereza Valentova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0eb350cca71c5475e97bea719b204600ef6b9d2296967fc10d5e7de8777ba211
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Valentovaof Cristian, Valentova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Valentova | 54c | 3,186$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,475.36 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Valentova | 59c | 2,391$1,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.9 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Valentova | 70c | 1,735$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.5 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cristian | 35c | 1,659$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.14 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Cristian | 41c | 1,454$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.9 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Cristian | 28c | 1,400$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.08 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Valentova | 72c | 1,250$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.81 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cristian | 18c | 1,133$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.9 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Cristian | 31c | 971.22$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Valentova | 72c | 750$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Valentova | 65c | 658.92$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.66 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Cristian | 46c | 584.67$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.95 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Cristian | 53c | 539.66$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.15 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Valentova | 70c | 459.41$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.04 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Cristian | 30c | 458.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.4 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Cristian | 49c | 345.9$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.03 | 264 | 62.1%164 W · 100 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Cristian | 46c | 334.39$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.6 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Valentova | 51c | 324.1$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.76 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Cristian | 38c | 315.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…423abacked Cristian | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Cristian | 29c | 274.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.74 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Valentova | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Cristian | 16c | 213$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdf…edf9backed Cristian | 54c | 210.72$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.79 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 70cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Valentova | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Valentova | 60c | 150$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cristian | 47c | 132.7$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Cristian | 41c | 120.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Valentova | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Valentova | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8d…037abacked Cristian | 72c | 58.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Cristian | 41c | 45.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…333bbacked Valentova | 50c | 43.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…745ebacked Valentova | 62c | 38.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Valentova | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Cristian | 38c | 29.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10da…ac87backed Valentova | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.