Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: DNSTY vs FALKE ESPORTS (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Phase 2 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ec1fc085069c9beda444b9afc9753d3378c238fca00384c7d283f6f2eef6b3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FALKE ESPORTSof DNSTY, FALKE ESPORTS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6116…9c40backed DNSTY | 51c | 674.88$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed FALKE ESPORTS | 70c | 645.98$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FALKE ESPORTS | 56c | 446.1$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.19 | 1,376 | 47.1%648 W · 728 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44b…4048backed DNSTY | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked DNSTY | 69c | 379$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.12 | 311 | 53.1%165 W · 146 L | +15.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked DNSTY | 53c | 318$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.36 | 700 | 43.7%306 W · 394 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed DNSTY | 9c | 298.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 463 | 26.6%123 W · 340 L | -26.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed DNSTY | 29c | 286.7$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 242 | 50.4%122 W · 120 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed DNSTY | 31c | 246$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.26 | 176 | 54.5%96 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed FALKE ESPORTS | 60c | 190.83$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed DNSTY | 20c | 171.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 353 | 31.2%110 W · 243 L | -29.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed FALKE ESPORTS | 30c | 171$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 1,276 | 32.1%409 W · 867 L | -67.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked DNSTY | 12c | 160$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed FALKE ESPORTS | 76c | 158$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 425 | 40.5%172 W · 253 L | -22.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked DNSTY | 35c | 136.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 450 | 33.8%152 W · 298 L | -35.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed DNSTY | 29c | 130.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…ca10backed FALKE ESPORTS | 56c | 111.86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked FALKE ESPORTS | 33c | 99.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 337 | 53.1%179 W · 158 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked DNSTY | 30c | 93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed DNSTY | 68c | 92.73$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 234 | 47%110 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed DNSTY | 21c | 83.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 322 | 61.5%198 W · 124 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked DNSTY | 61c | 77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 777 | 44%342 W · 435 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed FALKE ESPORTS | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed DNSTY | 71c | 71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed DNSTY | 28c | 58.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed DNSTY | 68c | 56.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 565 | 51.2%289 W · 276 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed DNSTY | 37c | 54.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed FALKE ESPORTS | 35c | 33.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 237 | 32.9%78 W · 159 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked DNSTY | 57c | 30.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed FALKE ESPORTS | 66c | 21.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 452 | 50%226 W · 226 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac03…f019backed FALKE ESPORTS | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked DNSTY | 72c | 14.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18c…63dabacked DNSTY | 72c | 14.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: DNSTY vs FALKE ESPORTS (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Phase 2 Playoffsthis page
- Valorant: DNSTY vs FALKE ESPORTS - Map 1 WinnerFALKE ESPORTS won
- Valorant: DNSTY vs FALKE ESPORTS - Map 2 WinnerFALKE ESPORTS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.