NHL · resolved market
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ec48a577e374191066599f27c7e023f7b09b04ed2590541e389b8c26a883e23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blue Jacketsof Oilers, Blue Jackets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Blue Jackets | 60c | 794.27$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.63 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Oilers | 40c | 532$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.8 | 308 | 48.4%149 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Oilers | 41c | 506.58$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.2 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Blue Jackets | 60c | 487.04$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.64 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Oilers | 39c | 245.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Oilers | 40c | 225$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Blue Jackets | 58c | 192$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Blue Jackets | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 74 | 71.6%53 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Blue Jackets | 61c | 123.77$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Oilers | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Oilers | 34c | 87.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Oilers | 40c | 82.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Oilers | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Oilers | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Blue Jackets | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…01a8backed Blue Jackets | 61c | 21.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)this page
- Blue Jackets vs. OilersOilers won
- Blue Jackets vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.