Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ecc8665db1b7a2adb4b124bd9033b398dbe4bf4f37e81dbecc7bccfbaa48f3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nightblood Gamingof Nightblood Gaming, SaD Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5480…b38cbacked Nightblood Gaming | 42c | 1,546$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0159…db47backed SaD Esports | 13c | 779.51$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.48 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -7.1wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked SaD Esports | 58c | 563.11$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.6 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…bcfabacked Nightblood Gaming | 38c | 388.04$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed SaD Esports | 62c | 340$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.8 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked SaD Esports | 19c | 254.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 848 | 38.2%324 W · 524 L | -50.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed SaD Esports | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked SaD Esports | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.61 | 520 | 50%260 W · 260 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked SaD Esports | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.9 | 553 | 48.3%267 W · 286 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Nightblood Gaming | 39c | 191$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.51 | 1,247 | 49.6%619 W · 628 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked SaD Esports | 64c | 183.35$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.56 | 1,309 | 43.8%573 W · 736 L | -44.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Nightblood Gaming | 36c | 181.16$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.78 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa57e…ed54backed SaD Esports | 58c | 177.59$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Nightblood Gaming | 56c | 171.61$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed SaD Esports | 23c | 170$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed SaD Esports | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 796 | 50%398 W · 398 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed SaD Esports | 39c | 143$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 443 | 42%186 W · 257 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed SaD Esports | 9c | 122$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 353 | 31.2%110 W · 243 L | -29.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Nightblood Gaming | 31c | 106.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Nightblood Gaming | 40c | 105.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 544 | 39.9%217 W · 327 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Nightblood Gaming | 31c | 100.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Nightblood Gaming | 36c | 94.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 338 | 38.5%130 W · 208 L | -21.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked SaD Esports | 29c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 907 | 33.1%300 W · 607 L | -89.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked SaD Esports | 62c | 49.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…04a3backed SaD Esports | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…024bbacked Nightblood Gaming | 46c | 42.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Nightblood Gaming | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 746 | 42.8%319 W · 427 L | -27.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked SaD Esports | 41c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked SaD Esports | 57c | 28.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 183 | 3.3%6 W · 177 L | -73.1wins | -0.40per pick | 43cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 11-0.35 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked SaD Esports | 39c | 27.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 962 | 45.1%434 W · 528 L | -18.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed SaD Esports | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9374…3770backed SaD Esports | 63c | 16.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group StageNightblood Gaming won
- Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports - Map 1 WinnerSaD Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.