MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ed3be59460c726cb8be34bd3c8b892dc642973e8acd3c44321200edfcd11291
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Over | 53c | 11,321$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,320.87 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Over | 53c | 6,197$3,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,912.67 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 5,384$2,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,523.94 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 5,195$2,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,441.47 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Under | 3c | 1,635$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 47c | 833.56$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.77 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 53c | 741.51$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.51 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 60c | 666.66$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.66 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 583.31$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 54c | 420.34$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.42 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 316.47$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.74 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 54c | 194.44$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 10c | 147.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 47c | 141$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 22c | 123.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 48c | 61.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Under | 49c | 53.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 54c | 41.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1641…a37fbacked Over | 54c | 22.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 48c | 22.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.