Bundesliga · resolved market
Hertha BSC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ef70f4c4777e7ddbdd78977e21f14e90ce2040127ac718f85ec9af4efd3e1c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 1,321$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.33 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 43c | 1,200$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 41c | 514.27$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 7c | 257.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 57c | 215.72$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.92 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 69c | 139.29$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 44c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 38c | 49.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 55c | 34.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…92b5backed Under | 63c | 26.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +8.1wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…b42dbacked Under | 63c | 16.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hertha BSC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 3.5this page
- Hertha BSC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hertha BSC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hertha BSC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hertha BSC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.