Bundesliga · resolved market
Hertha BSC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8501311c2aa8039d41d46602f3ac13329fdd4e660b7605fde04ba0e2f46e4bb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb585…53edbacked Under | 73c | 1,174$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -57%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 49c | 491$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.59 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 60c | 467.23$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.23 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 63c | 429.73$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.68 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…fa81backed Under | 31c | 406.98$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 69c | 399.98$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.99 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…0031backed Under | 53c | 377.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 47c | 203$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.69 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Over | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 39c | 188.21$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.12 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 34c | 151.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 149.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.53 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…f183backed Over | 56c | 118.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 34c | 99.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 28c | 68.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x827f…8027backed Under | 72c | 43.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 66c | 39.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 66c | 30.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…6a57backed Over | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hertha BSC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5this page
- Hertha BSC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hertha BSC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hertha BSC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hertha BSC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.