Bundesliga · resolved market
Hertha BSC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x950473f4f83ac55f25850b8ef9778eacb12cff3eb75bc64436f5816ac41b6fb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 31c | 2,170$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.05 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 69c | 1,849$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.91 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 14c | 361.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 317.68$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.61 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…f183backed Over | 64c | 300.63$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.03 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 38c | 231.58$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 40c | 211.95$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.04 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 70c | 195$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Under | 27c | 103.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 14c | 100.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 73c | 93.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 66c | 69.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…50adbacked Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 67c | 33.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…f53abacked Over | 62c | 32.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…f4e6backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hertha BSC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 1.5this page
- Hertha BSC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hertha BSC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hertha BSC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hertha BSC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.