Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f0737ed28d9ef260e7e859e1aa21190ab84c0f946204d54ed94b3ddf39f53ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ca8…25c0backed Yes | 3c | 2,670$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked No | 71c | 302.13$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.27 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 64c | 192.79$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 14c | 166.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 32c | 103.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 102.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 102.1$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2660…afa2backed No | 77c | 99.73$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 97.2$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 30c | 94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 22c | 89.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 23c | 84.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 21c | 81.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 76.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 28c | 74.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 72c | 69.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 64.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 76c | 63.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 22c | 62.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 30c | 61.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 41c | 53.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c4…c488backed Yes | 25c | 53.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a8…6abdbacked Yes | 51c | 53.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 63c | 52.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 30c | 49.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 31c | 49.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…7060backed Yes | 30c | 48.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8910…4734backed No | 75c | 43.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed Yes | 25c | 40.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 40.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 73c | 38.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 36.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6a…26f7backed Yes | 57c | 35.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 31.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed No | 80c | 28.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 75c | 25.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…cba6backed No | 79c | 19.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 77c | 19.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or higher on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.