Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5a0b55b4fa82c5d0ce0ab0632633943ef69c4586c32d7fb48832bed0f78a974
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb088…ee40backed No | 0c | 37,740$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…8f47backed No | 2c | 767.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 78c | 373.59$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.02 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 330.87$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 77c | 266.03$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.91 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 17c | 259.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.66 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 259.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…bfa8backed No | 17c | 208.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 38c | 142.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 68c | 142.68$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 141.83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 11c | 126.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.39 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 79c | 122.2$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…01b6backed Yes | 12c | 119.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.57 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 20c | 116.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 25c | 114.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 113.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.95 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 103.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.95 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd335…14a7backed Yes | 27c | 102.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 80c | 91.93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 22c | 89.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 33c | 89.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 12c | 86.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.05 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 14c | 83.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 62c | 74.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 67c | 70.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 67.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…7b0dbacked Yes | 45c | 63.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b57…a392backed Yes | 18c | 62.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 41c | 60.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 25c | 59.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…9427backed Yes | 24c | 57.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 49c | 56.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 58c | 51.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 21c | 50.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 39c | 46.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 68c | 43.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 55c | 41.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 78c | 38.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 38c | 37.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked No | 39c | 27.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 46c | 26.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 75c | 22.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 21.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or higher on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.