Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda0e93f8eb3e1f156b244597bd6511f7e5e03caa3b384f27a2b328fb3943b873
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…2d7dbacked Yes | 60c | 317.53$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed Yes | 48c | 210.9$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.53 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 41c | 176.55$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…0247backed No | 55c | 138.61$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 62c | 134.69$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 10c | 113.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 104.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 99.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 22c | 97.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd335…14a7backed Yes | 43c | 87.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 63c | 86.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 78.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 27c | 76.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 18c | 75.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 51c | 75.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…e457backed No | 49c | 73.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 52c | 73.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5685…3056backed Yes | 32c | 63.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 62.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 27c | 59.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 54.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 63c | 52.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35ec…e369backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 42c | 49.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 34c | 49.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 44c | 47.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 57c | 47.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b96…cdb4backed Yes | 57c | 43.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -71%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c0…646ebacked No | 57c | 38.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…9f2ebacked Yes | 50c | 37.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 58c | 37.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 35.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…9427backed Yes | 41c | 34.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 37c | 34.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 63c | 33.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 51c | 32.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7293…98e8backed Yes | 45c | 31.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 56c | 29.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87cc…da77backed Yes | 37c | 27.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…286cbacked Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 63c | 20.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4671…b5eebacked No | 61c | 20.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 59c | 18.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked No | 65c | 16.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 15.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or higher on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.