Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f0ba5fbaea865db8871c3a47e16d56c5d0bffb5879c571d8b778e428edd129a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,529 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 10c | 999.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 290.16$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 208$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 25c | 204$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 187.53$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 6c | 181.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed Yes | 11c | 174.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 20c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked No | 76c | 142.29$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 12c | 129.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 22c | 125.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…fa69backed No | 77c | 120.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +259.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed Yes | 14c | 106.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 15c | 96.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 95.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…b0c6backed Yes | 12c | 91.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked No | 69c | 64.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 22c | 61.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3409…6839backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 43.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 35c | 42.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 69c | 36.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 18.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C or higher on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.