College Football · resolved market
Will Alabama beat South Carolina by 22 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f0da53a33da65b5660fec3ff70fd94504d10fbf19c7e6b15cb1154091dee400
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1856…1964backed Yes | 50c | 4,912$2,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,476.83 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 50c | 3,837$1,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,936.16 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Yes | 48c | 1,900$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.19 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked No | 52c | 1,900$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.18 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed No | 52c | 1,242$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.39 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed No | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5521…5d75backed No | 53c | 358.51$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked No | 53c | 339.62$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.62 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…537abacked Yes | 59c | 255.93$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 47c | 239.62$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.62 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8810…2677backed Yes | 48c | 193$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d1…7d08backed No | 52c | 103$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed No | 55c | 101.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…928fbacked Yes | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fd…4854backed No | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f4…79a4backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Yes | 47c | 37.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea9…02f9backed Yes | 52c | 21.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alabama beat South Carolina by 22 or more points?this page
- Will Alabama beat South Carolina?Alabama won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.