Mls · resolved market
FC Dallas vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f35b801d69bac3e7c96b9c50ff10443773d6586d2c0533c1f0f764e48107d69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,666 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 19c | 587.44$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.7 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 56c | 533.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 19c | 529.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.18 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 513.64$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.8 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d8…7adabacked Over | 22c | 288.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +377.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec1…2dc5backed Under | 78c | 288.46$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad8…ca12backed Over | 22c | 288.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f38…c97cbacked Under | 78c | 288.46$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 45c | 286.14$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.38 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 57c | 273$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.03 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 19c | 183.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.91 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 50c | 179.2$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.47 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 41c | 126.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.92 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 18c | 125$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 26c | 112.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 18c | 93.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 46c | 86.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 25c | 86.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 79c | 72.88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…a4c4backed Over | 52c | 62.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +8.5wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x034e…f79dbacked Over | 53c | 54.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 45c | 44.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 80c | 41.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 59c | 38.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…5e83backed Over | 53c | 37.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Under | 55c | 34.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4929…b9f9backed Over | 51c | 22.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Over | 47c | 21.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x287c…81b2backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…a506backed Under | 68c | 19.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Dallas vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Dallas vs. San Diego FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Dallas vs. San Diego FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Dallas vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Dallas vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-2.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.