Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f37de94749d1bc8c06f3ae30d4b5fd822c9547bd3b735cbd5fdacd0211650ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,757 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed No | 0c | 5,032$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b8…8665backed No | 0c | 2,802$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…cdf7backed No | 9c | 1,435$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.01 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 10c | 487.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 74c | 471.11$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.25 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 16c | 331.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 63c | 325.78$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.38 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 267.93$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 25c | 249.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 28c | 207.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.2 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 15c | 206.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 69c | 201.29$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.53 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 32c | 191.22$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.22 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 190.75$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.85 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 69c | 176.77$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0f…b307backed No | 6c | 168.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 34c | 166.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 29c | 166.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.32 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 143.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 23c | 133.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 13c | 133$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0043…dadebacked No | 13c | 110.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 19c | 108.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 107.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 105.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 30c | 97.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 32c | 90.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 30c | 84.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 28c | 79.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 69c | 78.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 17c | 77.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 13c | 74.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299a…9e6fbacked No | 22c | 68.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 34c | 65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 62.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 37c | 59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 71c | 56.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 70c | 53.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 71c | 48.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…932fbacked Yes | 31c | 47.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 45.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…26febacked Yes | 38c | 45.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 48c | 37.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 67c | 32.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 60c | 24.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 72c | 20.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed No | 72c | 20.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…8032backed No | 65c | 17.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 74c | 15.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 71c | 14.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C or below on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C or higher on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.