Mls · resolved market
Will FC Cincinnati vs. Columbus Crew end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f4b22073340facc7fc32de984192adf9afbbd8f3aedc6331dc9a9feb4d683f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 75c | 1,774$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.5 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,299$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.67 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 14c | 799.66$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.34 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 26c | 761$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.86 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 75c | 301.52$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…80aebacked Yes | 34c | 210$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 66c | 209$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 67c | 127.28$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…5c8fbacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffe…b69dbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fad…b5b2backed Yes | 28c | 52.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e1…2300backed Yes | 62c | 48.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 55c | 26.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Cincinnati vs. Columbus Crew end in a draw?this page
- Will Columbus Crew win on 2025-10-27?No won
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.