MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f563b2a4d41e78d669bd01bdd8c48c423a964b59e0e6223327577d175c2bbb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Detroit Tigers | 59c | 1,356$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.85 | 255 | 51%130 W · 125 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 1,184$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.49 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6109…8a3ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 742.14$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 665.17$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.15 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 552.5$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.6 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 552.5$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.6 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 232.07$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.4 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Detroit Tigers | 68c | 191.18$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 189.64$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.37 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 178.56$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.45 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 107.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…fd63backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 50.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 32.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a59…e94cbacked Detroit Tigers | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…7bc9backed Detroit Tigers | 71c | 14.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tigers vs. GuardiansGuardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.